Precursor Awards (2023-2024)

[malcolm1980]

SAG and DGA predictions:

SAG:

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE

Michael Cera, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera, Ryan Gosling, Ariana Greenblatt, Kate McKinnon, Helen Mirren, Rhea Perlman, Issa Rae and Margot Robbie, Barbie

Halle Bailey, Fantasia Barrino, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, Taraji P. Henson, H.E.R. and Phylicia Pearl Mpasi, The Color Purple

Tantoo Cardinal, Robert De Niro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Brendan Fraser, Lily Gladstone, John Lithgow and Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

Casey Affleck, Emily Blunt, Kenneth Branagh, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr., Josh Hartnett, Rami Malek, Cillian Murphy and Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer

Christopher Abbott, Jerrod Carmichael, Willem Dafoe, Mark Ruffalo, Emma Stone and Ramy Youssef, Poor Things

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein, Maestro
Colman Domingo as Bayard Rustin, Rustin
Paul Giamatti as Paul Hunham, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright as Thelonious "Monk" Ellison, American Fiction

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening as Diane Nyad, NYAD
Lily Gladstone as Molly Burkhardt, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan as Felicia Montealegre, Maestro
Margot Robbie as Barbie, Barbie
Emma Stone as Bella Baxter, Poor Things

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe as Dr. Godwin Baxter, Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr. as Lewis Strauss, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling as Ken, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo as Duncan Wedderburn, Poor Things
Dominic Sessa as Angus Tully, The Holdovers

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Emily Blunt as Katherine "Kitty" Oppenheimer, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks as Sofia, The Color Purple
Viola Davis as Deloris Jordan, Air
Jodie Foster as Bonnie Stoll, NYAD
Da'Vine Joy Randolph as Mary Lamb, The Holdovers

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning
NYAD

DGA

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Outstanding Directorial Achievement of a First-Time Feature Film Director
Chloe Domont, Fair Play
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One
Celine Song, Past Lives
Juel Taylor, They Cloned Tyrone

[Brad]

(01-09-2024 07:47 AM)misplaced validity Wrote:  Why are the Globes still 'a thing' to where they attract big stars and such? It has a known history not only of being bought off, but of the racism scandal from 2 years ago. It seems odd to me how they were able to weather all of that so quickly/easily.

I think with the actors’ strike(and writer’s), and their being unable to promote their work for a good part of the year, there is probably a big rush to latch on to any opportunity they can during this awards cycle.

[emmygrammyoscartony]

I think an important thing to remember when predicting SAG is that they are movie and TV actors. I refuse to not have Brown in my predictions, especially with the love they gave to "This Is Us." It is also why I am predicting Ferrera.

Cast
Air
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Lead Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Lead Actress
Annette Bening, NYAD
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Julianne Moore, May December
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

[NUguy514]

(01-10-2024 03:27 AM)emmygrammyoscartony Wrote:  I think an important thing to remember when predicting SAG is that they are movie and TV actors. I refuse to not have Brown in my predictions, especially with the love they gave to "This Is Us." It is also why I am predicting Ferrera.

That doesn't matter in the slightest bit. For one thing, the film and TV nominating committees are separate. I was on the film nominating committee four years ago, and I only nominated film actors. Also, those committees are chosen by lottery, so the makeup of each changes every year; enough people on the TV committee two years ago might have nominated Brown for This Is Us, but that has zero bearing on whether the people on the film committee this year will nominate him for American Fiction. Same with Ferrera, whom I would likely predict because she's in the biggest hit of the year, not because she was nominated for Ugly Betty fourteen years ago by a completely different group of people.

When I had the chance to nominate, I of course watched as many movies as I possibly could, but that's not the norm at all. What seems to matter most are having screenings of a film (as many as possible) and sending out screeners of that film as early as possible. That will get that movie seen early and often and greatly improve the chances that actors from it will be nominated. Also, of course, plenty of people on the nominating committee will just nominate actors from movies they haven't watched because they heard those actors were good and/or because they just like those actors.

(01-09-2024 07:47 AM)misplaced validity Wrote:  Why are the Globes still 'a thing' to where they attract big stars and such? It has a known history not only of being bought off, but of the racism scandal from 2 years ago. It seems odd to me how they were able to weather all of that so quickly/easily.

People in Hollywood love to celebrate themselves and love to win awards; that'll supersede a lot of things.

[emmygrammyoscartony]

Thanks, NUGuy! I actually did not know that!

[malcolm1980]

SAG nominations:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1

[misplaced validity]

Charles Melton didn't make the longlist for BAFTA and is snubbed by SAG, so his chances at even getting an Oscar nomination are looking slim There was no love for May December, though, as Julianne Moore was also snubbed.

That prediction of Sterling K Brown getting in at SAG turned out to be true, though. More so American Fiction did quite well.

There Jeremy Strong snub is surprising, but thankfully 4 of the 5 nominees aren't from the same show. 3 of 5 is too much as it is.

The Last of Us got in Ensemble with only 2 actors listed. Has that ever happened before?

[emmygrammyoscartony]

Yeah, Melton missing is not good. I still think he will get in, though. I think even more surprising is the Ruffalo snub. Wow! I am also surprised that Streep was snubbed for "Only Murders," but maybe that was not a sure thing. I just know that a guest spot has been nodded before (Field, ER).

"Barbie" got in for STUNTS? *sigh* okay.

[NUguy514]

I didn't think Melton was that good and have found his mini-sweep of the critics' prizes unearned, so his snub does not bother me.

If you want to see how having lots of screenings early pay off, look no further than Cruz's nomination. I received so many emails about Ferrari screenings (I went to none of them, but a non-SAG friend went with a friend of hers to a screening last week and said it was bad), and Supporting Actress is a wide open category. There were also lots of screenings for Nyad, for what it's worth.

I've seen nothing other than Barbie, but I'm bummed that Greta Lee wasn't nominated.

I guess I have to watch Ferrari, Maestro, and The Color Purple now. I am...not looking forward to the last, in particular.

[misplaced validity]

(01-11-2024 03:17 AM)NUguy514 Wrote:  I didn't think Melton was that good and have found his mini-sweep of the critics' prizes unearned, so his snub does not bother me.

Oh wow, not even the things he does physically?

Randolph is the one whose sweep I am truly flummoxed by.

Quote:If you want to see how having lots of screenings early pay off, look no further than Cruz's nomination. I received so many emails about Ferrari screenings (I went to none of them, but a non-SAG friend went with a friend of hers to a screening last week and said it was bad), and Supporting Actress is a wide open category. There were also lots of screenings for Nyad, for what it's worth.

Interesting, though Cruz, Bening, and Foster are all well-liked so I wouldn't be surprised by these nominations regardless. If Cruz could get in SAG and Oscar for Nine, then this isn't a surprise (based on the clips I've seen she's essentially giving a performance similar to Nine and VCB). Interestingly Cruz has never won a SAG Award, though.