Box Office Musings

[dug11]

So, with the summer blockbuster season almost upon us, I thought a box office thread could be a fun one to have.

Currently, Furious 7 is destroying the box office - it hit $1 billion in 17 days, breaking the record held by The Avengers. It also had a $68 million opening day in China, besting its performance in the U.S. Box Office Mojo is predicting it to finish with around $1.4 billion worldwide, which is pretty incredible and would place it #5 worldwide. If it can finish with a bit more than $1.5 billion, it could even finish #4, above The Avengers.

It'll be interesting to see where The Avengers: Age of Ultron ends up. I imagine its opening weekend will be around the first. Will it manage to increase the total from the first film, though?

And then later in the year, there is Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which has played the buzz game very well so far. But it will be the first in the franchise to open outside of the summer season. I have seen some exremely early predictions for it - but some think it may open on The Avengers level, while some put it closer to $120-$150 million. I do think December may mute its opening weekend slightly, but it will have those three weeks or so at the end of the year that basically act similarly to summer, so it should have huge daily performances.

I imagine The Avengers: Age of Ultron will end up at #1 for the year, but it could be a bit of a race. And I imagine the three movies above are the ones who will end up fighting for that spot.

[Above the Title]

You're forgetting "Jurassic Park" maybe.

[dug11]

I don't think Jurassic World will be a huge contender, although I could be wrong. Buzz seems kind of mixed at this point, and it is coming off a third film that couldn't even finish with $200 million (although that was over a decade ago). Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see it finish around Jurassic Park III's adjusted gross of $265 million. Although, I think it will come in under that amount (my bold prediction!)

It does have Chris Pratt, who is huge right now. But I think it'll be more of a mid-range kind of performer. Strong, but not an overwhelming performance.

[dug11]

The Avengers: Age of Ultron opened to $201 million this past weekend before its U.S. release. It opened in 55% of territories.

[teppo2]

Which, based on my extremely scientific method of forecasting (roughly multiplying that out based on percentages and sprinkled with magic fairy dust), puts it on course for about 1.8 billion worldwide. I figure around 550 stateside and 1.3B internationally.

[dug11]

Deadline is reporting that The Avengers: Age of Ultron is looking to break the record for highest single day gross with $94-$97 million today, and that the opening weekend may be in the $217-$220 million range - beating the first film's record.

[mahogany soul]

And I read that Downey Jr. gets 5 to 7% gross of any film that he plays Tony Stark in. So this is going to be a beautiful couple of months for him.

[teppo2]

Deadline is infamous for over-projecting their Friday numbers. I bet the actual is closer to the original's 207.

[dug11]

Box Office Mojo has the film making $84.5 million yesterday, which falls short of the single-day record. However, it's still a huge number.

But it looks like it will not blow away the first film's opening weekend, so this may be the first time we see a $200+ million opening weekend a "disappointment".

[dug11]

Well, The Avengers: Age of Ultron would up with $187.7 million, which is impressive and puts it at the second highest grossing weekend of all-time. However, people expecting it to blow past the original's opening weekend are going to make this out to be a disappointment, which....it isn't. However, it will probably end up grossing quite a bit less than the original stateside, I'd say around $100 million less, maybe slightly less. Depends on word-of-mouth, I guess, but it does have Memorial Day to give it another boost soon. But it will probably earn more than the original did worldwide.

It'll be interesting to see if it is able to surpass Furious 7 worldwide total. It's domestic take is at $330 million, which Age of Ultron will easily surpass. However, worldwide it is at a massive $1.3 BILLION. Which makes it the fourth highest grossing film of all time. It could upset Age of Ultron, which would be a huge shock to most, but I think that the latter will pull it off in the end.