Rio Olympics

[stereoman]

Gabby Douglas might not make it to Rio. All she needs to do is finish top five. She's currently seventh.

http://espn.go.com/espnw/sports/article/...by-douglas

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(07-10-2016 05:03 AM)stereoman Wrote:  Gabby Douglas might not make it to Rio. All she needs to do is finish top five. She's currently seventh.

http://espn.go.com/espnw/sports/article/...by-douglas

The Olympics team is based on selection, so Douglas could get in (or net get in) regardless of where she finishes. The main thing helping her (apart from experience in big meets) is they need her for uneven bars, but she obviously has to perform well on that event this weekend to lock in her spot. I can't really tell what is going on with her, but frankly she has never been the most reliable gymnast. Her Olympics win is somewhat of a fluke in that she hadn't competed that well before that event and hasn't since that event. She's never even won the all-around at Nationals.

[stereoman]

Yup, I read it wrong. Brutal for those taking part knowing full well they're very likely not going to make the final five.

http://espn.go.com/espnw/sports/article/...ympic-team

Day 1 results anyway:

https://usagym.org/PDFs/Results/w_16trials_day1.pdf

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(07-10-2016 09:11 AM)stereoman Wrote:  Yup, I read it wrong. Brutal for those taking part knowing full well they're very likely not going to make the final five.

http://espn.go.com/espnw/sports/article/...ympic-team

Day 1 results anyway:

https://usagym.org/PDFs/Results/w_16trials_day1.pdf

I could see Kocian and Locklear both making it over Douglas if Douglas doesn't perform well tomorrow. I don't think they truly need Douglas for any event other than uneven bars, so if her bars score isn't all that much higher than, say, Biles or Hernandez
(and last night it was only .2 higher), the committee could choose Kocian and Locklear (who both got over .6 higher than Douglas on bars yesterday) for the team and then use Biles, Raisman, or Hernandez for the third bars slot. In the end that might still give the team a higher overall score on that one event.

Would Douglas potentially be used on any other event in the team event? Biles and Raisman will likely be used on vault, floor, and beam, so that's 2 of 3 slots right there.

[Above the Title]

Ugh, when I am done with Trials tomorrow I'm going to compile a list of the shitty things NBC has said on air but to contribute now to the topic of Douglas...

I still think she's on the team. The only real contenders for her spot are Nichols and Locklear, who also fell. In a toss up, advantage goes to the reigning Olympic champion. What the coverage has done no job of explaining is that the extra factor this year is protecting Biles. She COULD do AA in Team Finals but I think Marta wants to not overextend her with her being such a huge favorite not only in the AA but in three events individual events now as well. So their choices without Douglas/third viable bars routine are risk overusing Biles or absorb a score in the low 14s. Now, they're going to win by like five points so absorbing a low-ish score may not mean anything, but they don't want to take any chances. I think the protection of Biles helps Douglas, and I think she's got the Amanar and they will use that and her bars in team finals. Interestingly though, I think she has underperformed enough that they will cut her from bars in prelims so that Raisman can also do the AA. Skinner is peaking perfectly but is totally unusable on bars. Same with Ragan Smith. So Nichols and Locklear are it and they also both fell on beam. Locklear's added detriment is that only trains one other event so if someone truly got injured, she is not a reliable sub.

For some historical context:
Carly Patterson and McKayla Maroney both fell twice at Olympic Trials. This is roughly how team selection has worked since 2004 - with an automatic (or two) berths and the rest being selected according to being a part of the puzzle, and a lot of that is because of the event specialists who don't compete AA.

Team Finals
VT
Douglas
Raisman
Biles

UB
Hernandez
Douglas
Kocian

BB
Raisman
Biles
Hernandez

FX
Hernandez
Raisman
Biles

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(07-10-2016 12:40 PM)Above the Title Wrote:  I think the protection of Biles helps Douglas, and I think she's got the Amanar and they will use that and her bars in team finals.

Is she planning to do the Amanar tomorrow? She didn't do it last night, which apparently disappointed Marta.

Interestingly though, I think she has underperformed enough that they will cut her from bars in prelims so that Raisman can also do the AA.[/quote]

I forget how this works, so please explain. I'm pretty sure a max of two can compete in AA for a country, but how are those two decided?

[Above the Title]

A max of two per country can make it to the AA finals. Team prelims are the scores used to tabulate who makes AA and the events finals. US can have as many as they want compete AA by performing all four events, but only the top two can qualify to the AA finals. In 2012, for example, Wieber, Raisman, and Douglas all did all four events in prelims and Wieber was shockingly fourth - but Raisman and Douglas were ahead of her so they qualified. Theoretically, if the US had an injured athlete and didn't want to use an alternate, they could have all four compete every event, but only their top two can move on.

Prelims are 5 athletes per team - 4 up on each event - 3 scores count.

I think at this point Biles is obviously a lock to compete AA (and make it). Somebody has to be dropped from the bars prelims so Kocian can anchor. Scores wise, that somebody should be Raisman. But if she doesn't perform all four events in prelims, she can't qualify to AA finals. So I think they may drop Douglas there. They'd still have her do bars in team finals but it would take her out of AA and potentially a bars finals spot. But, at this point, it's like extremely likely they could pull her from beam prelims and put Kocian on there so she'd be out of AA anyway.

Gabby wasn't planning on doing the Amanar at all at Trials but I think she should go for it tomorrow!

[Above the Title]

Meanwhile, USAG invited every single member of every Olympic team ever (including alternates!) to Trials and just livestreamed this parade of champions. So so so effing amazing. Of course the headline was absolutely the reunion of the compete Magnificent Seven on the 20th anniversary of this win but I just read on their Twitter that it was also the first ever reunion of the 1980 team that never got to compete because of the boycott. They tweeted a super short video clip but at least one of the gymnasts in the huddle is in tears.

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(07-10-2016 01:58 PM)Above the Title Wrote:  Prelims are 5 athletes per team - 4 up on each event - 3 scores count.

Which 3 scores count? The highest?

Quote:Gabby wasn't planning on doing the Amanar at all at Trials but I think she should go for it tomorrow!

Do you think they'd take her to Rio for vault if she doesn't?

[Above the Title]

LOl yes, duh, the three highest. Who would count their lowest score?

I think she's on the team regardless for the reasons I listed above. Based on the makeup of the rest of the presumptive team (Biles, Raisman, Hernandez, Kocian), she fills a hole they need of being someone on bars in Team Finals. I don't see any of the other girls who had better days (Skinner and Smith) filling that void, and the ones who can (Locklear and Swaggie Maggie) also fell. They also have three more weeks of training before they leave. But tonight is another night of competition and anything can happen.

What she is trying to do is no small feat. No Olympic AA champion has returned to defend her title since NADIA in 1980. No American gymnast has even come back to be on a second team since 2000. She is an athlete who trains to peak, and Marta knows this. She won Olympic Trials in 2012, upsetting Wieber, and then steamrolled to the AA gold. Last year she did just as poorly at Nationals and won AA silver at Worlds behind Biles. Her reputation is for looking a mess early on and hitting when it counts. Now, if she really falls apart tonight, maybe they leave her home then. I honestly really only see it as being between her and Nichols for that spot...