Oscars 2023

[Culturegeek]

a) I don't think Yeoh is winning at all. Very much "the nomination is the reward/thank you for your career."

b) From Mark Harris re Williams

"She's in lead because she's a lead, with more screen time than all but one Supporting Actress nominee in the last 20 years, more than half the ACTRESS nominees in the last 20 years, and more than she does in My Week with Marilyn. No one wants category fraud, right?"

That said, even though I love Kushner and Spielberg, I'm really not excited about his origin story.

c) I am VERY curious about Blonde. I read the book and was mostly positive on it, but cannot imagine a film that works short of an I'm Not There style exegesis.

d) Remember when third oscars used to be hard to win? If Blanchett wins, she'll have the second shortest time span between first and third (18 years; only Brennan was faster). Considering how much she kept missing at AMPAS those first few years (she lost to Gwenyth Paltrow! We predicted her for The Shipping News, for crying out loud) that's somewhat staggering to me. I do find it intriguing just how little spreading the wealth there is nowadays.

[Dr.ciski77]

De Armas' isn't getting in. The reviews are poor and the film's NC-17. Right now, i don't even think Williams is in. Yeoh is a pretty safe bet especially if critics start rallying around her early. Blanchett also looks good for a nod but I can't remember the last actor who won for an art house movie.

India not selecting RRR for Foreign Film is... asinine.

[Culturegeek]

At this point, anything not in a universe is probably an art house film, but I'd call Nomadland and If Beale Street Could Talk as art house films.

Yeah, genuinely shocked that RRR missed out.

[malcolm1980]

My post-fall festival/pre-precursor predictions!

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

All Quiet in the Western Front (Netflix) Edward Berger, Daniel Marc Dreifuss and Malte Grunert, producers.

Babylon (Paramount) Marc Platt, Matthew Plouffe and Olivia Hamilton, producers.

The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) Peter Czernin, Graham Broadbent and Martin McDonagh, producers.

Everything, Everywhere All At Once (A24) Jonathan Wang, producer.

The Fabelmans (Universal/Amblin) Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner and Kristie Macosko-Krieger, producers.

Tár (Focus Features) Todd Field and Scott Lambert, producers.

Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount/Skydance) Tom Cruise, Jerry Bruckheimer, David Ellison and Christopher McQuarrie, producers.

Triangle of Sadness (Neon/BBC Films/Canal+) Philippe Bober and Erik Hemmendorf, producers.

The Whale (A24) Darren Aronofsky, Ari Handel and Jeremy Dawson, producers.

Women Talking (Plan B) Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Edward Berger, All Quiet in the Western Front
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler, Elvis
Diego Calva, Babylon
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything, Everywhere All At Once

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Daniel Bruhl, All Quiet in the Western Front
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan, Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Banshees of Inisherin
written by Martin McDonagh

Everything, Everywhere All At Once
written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

The Fabelmans
written by Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg

Tár
written by Todd Field

Triangle of Sadness
written by Ruben Ostlund

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

All Quiet in the Western Front
screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell
based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
screenplay by Rian Johnson.
based on his previous film

Top Gun: Maverick
screen story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks & screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie
based on the characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.

The Whale
screenplay by Samuel D. Hunter
based on his play.

Women Talking
screenplay by Sarah Polley
based on the novel by Miriam Toews.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Pinocchio (Netflix)
The Sea Beast (Netflix)
Strange Worlds (Disney)
Turning Red (PIXAR/Disney)
Wendell and Wild (Netflix)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
James Friend, All Quiet in the Western Front
Linus Sandgren, Babylon
Darius Khondji, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Svenn Budelmann, All Quiet in the Western Front
Tom Cross, Babylon
Paul Rogers, Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans
Eddie Hamiton, Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN

Avatar: The Way of Water
Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (production design) & Vanessa Cole (set decoration)

Babylon
Florencia Martin (production design) & Anthony Carlino (set decoration)

The Batman
James Chindlund (production design) & Lee Sandales (set decoration)

Elvis
Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy (production design) & Beverly Dunn, Shaun Barry and Daniel Reader (set decoration)

The Fabelmans
Rick Carter (production design) & Karen O'Hara (set decoration)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Mary Zophres, Babylon
Ruth Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin, Elvis
Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans
Gersha Philipps, The Woman King

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
Michael Giacchino, The Batman
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light
John Williams, The Fabelmans
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick; music & lyrics by Lady Gaga and Michael Tucker
"Keep Rising", The Woman King; music & lyrics by Jessy Wilson, Angelique Kidjo and Jeremy Lutito
"Naatu, Naatu", RRR; music by M. M. Keeravani & lyrics by Chandrabose
"Nobody Like U", Turning Red; music & lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell.
"An Original Song", Pinocchio; music & lyrics by Alexandre Desplat

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
All Quiet in the Western Front
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN A MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet in the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
The Whale
The Woman King

[Dr.ciski77]

(09-23-2022 11:42 AM)Culturegeek Wrote:  At this point, anything not in a universe is probably an art house film, but I'd call Nomadland and If Beale Street Could Talk as art house films.

Yeah, genuinely shocked that RRR missed out.

I believe that both of them hit the major theater chains, while I am not expecting TAR's release strategy to work out quite like that, but I might be wrong. She definitely needs as much exposure as possible even with the prestige that's attached to her name.

[misplaced validity]

(09-23-2022 10:42 AM)Culturegeek Wrote:  d) Remember when third oscars used to be hard to win? If Blanchett wins, she'll have the second shortest time span between first and third (18 years; only Brennan was faster). Considering how much she kept missing at AMPAS those first few years (she lost to Gwenyth Paltrow! We predicted her for The Shipping News, for crying out loud) that's somewhat staggering to me. I do find it intriguing just how little spreading the wealth there is nowadays.

I only know the acting ones, but it is interesting. When Nicholson won for As Good As It Gets, it had been since Hepburn over 25 years earlier, right? We then went nearly 15 more years, but then Streep, Day-Lewis, and McDormand all won their third within a 10 year period. Within that same 10 year period Ali, Blanchett, Hopkins, Waltz, and Zelleweger all won a second as well. So, yeah, spreading the wealth seems to be less of a thing.

[Dr.ciski77]

(09-23-2022 10:42 AM)Culturegeek Wrote:  b) From Mark Harris re Williams

"She's in lead because she's a lead, with more screen time than all but one Supporting Actress nominee in the last 20 years, more than half the ACTRESS nominees in the last 20 years, and more than she does in My Week with Marilyn. No one wants category fraud, right?"

Fabelmans is 151 minutes long. She's bound to have more screen time than a bunch of those in terms of length (which is what Harris is seemingly referring to) but not necessarily percentage-wise, which is really what we should consider if this lead vs supporting argument is supposed to hold any water. Example: Denzel in Malcolm X holds the Best Actor record for screen time length at 2h 22m, but he's not even in the top 10 for screen time percentage because the movie is 3h 22m total. James Whitmore is in 96% of GTHH but outside of the top 10 for length because the movie is only 103 minutes long.

[malcolm1980]

Russia will be boycotting the Oscars and will not submit an International Feature entry this year. Can’t say I’m surprised.

[Dr.ciski77]

Can't say they'll be missed lol

[malcolm1980]

Will Smith is back in the Oscar race. His slavery themed thriller for AppleTV+ is gonna drop in December and will qualify for this year's ceremony. I doubt they'll nominate him again unless he's undeniable but on the other hand....Best Actor is looking fairly empty. There's at least two fluid spots. So who knows?