Precursor Awards (2022-2023)

[Brad]

I still think Ana de Armas and I are neck and neck for that Best Actress nom.

[eurocheese]

(12-15-2022 01:46 PM)Brad Wrote:  I still think Ana de Armas and I are neck and neck for that Best Actress nom.

You have my vote.

[NUguy514]

(12-15-2022 03:09 PM)eurocheese Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 01:46 PM)Brad Wrote:  I still think Ana de Armas and I are neck and neck for that Best Actress nom.

You have my vote.

Mine, too.

[emmygrammyoscartony]

Crazier things have happened!

[NUguy514]

I mean, if Rami Malek can sweep all televised awards for an offensively boring and disastrously bad imitation of Freddie Mercury, then anything truly is possible.

[emmygrammyoscartony]

Ugh. I had blocked that out. God damn it.

And then Egerton was not nodded the next year.

[Culturegeek]

(12-15-2022 07:23 AM)emmygrammyoscartony Wrote:  I still think Ana De Armas can happen and take that fifth slot.

I agree. I think Blanchett and Yeoh are basically locked, Deadwyler a tier below and in a good position, but you have five people (Williams, Colman, Robbie, Davis, De Armas) fighting for two slots. Tonnes of tests going on

-- How will Babylon land?
-- Spielberg movies have faded in recent vintage (Lincoln couldn't even win screenplay) - exactly how strong is it here?
-- Empire of Light is staggering even more - is Colman a default nominee yet (I don't think you can argue that any of her previous nominations were by default)
-- The Woman King overperformed at the box office so maybe Davis can get in (again, she's not a default nominee yet either), but September releases are very challenging when it comes to sustaining buzz.

re: Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

I still go back and ponder just how easily he locked himself into the victory seat that race.

[NUguy514]

(12-16-2022 11:31 AM)Culturegeek Wrote:  re: Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody

I still go back and ponder just how easily he locked himself into the victory seat that race.

[Brad]

(12-16-2022 11:31 AM)Culturegeek Wrote:  

(12-15-2022 07:23 AM)emmygrammyoscartony Wrote:  I still think Ana De Armas can happen and take that fifth slot.

I agree. I think Blanchett and Yeoh are basically locked, Deadwyler a tier below and in a good position, but you have five people (Williams, Colman, Robbie, Davis, De Armas) fighting for two slots. Tonnes of tests going on

-- How will Babylon land?
-- Spielberg movies have faded in recent vintage (Lincoln couldn't even win screenplay) - exactly how strong is it here?
-- Empire of Light is staggering even more - is Colman a default nominee yet (I don't think you can argue that any of her previous nominations were by default)
-- The Woman King overperformed at the box office so maybe Davis can get in (again, she's not a default nominee yet either), but September releases are very challenging when it comes to sustaining buzz.

I feel like Williams is at least with Deadwyler, if not with Blanchett and Yeoh. I think her spot is pretty solid.

And I mean, if we’re looking at Spielberg’s track record, you gotta look at Andrew Dominik’s too. And, Blonde was a September release as well.

I just don’t see people being willing to turn on the nearly 3 hour long, NC17 movie that was resoundingly hated by critics and audiences alike to see if de Armas is any good.

I don’t know if Colman has reached default status yet either, but I’d most certainly bank on that happening before Ana de Armas getting nominated.

[Culturegeek]

I don't think you're wrong and I wouldn't predict de Armas right now, but I do think she's got a path. To me, Blonde's critical reception is only slightly worse then The Hateful Eight (full disclosure - I loathed the Tarantino movie so I'm seeing through partial eyes) and Leigh still got in. But beyond that, it's a biopic about someone they know fairly well. You're right to comment on Dominik's lack of track record and it's fairly fast fade from consciousness, but Netflix pushes their movies HARD and they don't have a heck of a lot going on. I wouldn't go for her myself - out of 39 releases I've seen from 2022, she ranks 10th for me. But I don't have your conviction that it can't happen.

There's a thesis I've got about actresses that read just as much supporting as lead and the difficulty they have in sustaining momentum. Amy Adams couldn't get nominated for lead in 2016 - getting boxed out by Ruth Negga of all people - and she's someone who I view as having straddled that line very consistently throughout her career. Michelle Williams is someone else who I think straddles that line and she strikes me as someone who keeps plugging away until she gets that Honorary. Plus the potential for category confusion.